在“四個革命、一個合作”能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安全(quan)新戰略指引下,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)提出(chu)了構(gou)建清(qing)潔(jie)低碳、安全(quan)高效(xiao)的(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體系的(de)(de)戰略目標(biao),包括到2030年(nian)非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占一次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費比重達到20%,天(tian)然氣占比達到15%以(yi)上,新增能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)需求主要依靠清(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)滿(man)足(zu),二氧化碳排放2030年(nian)左(zuo)右達到峰(feng)值(zhi)并(bing)爭取盡(jin)早(zao)達峰(feng)等具體目標(biao)。全(quan)球(qiu)天(tian)然氣資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)極為豐富,不僅本身是可(ke)負擔的(de)(de)清(qing)潔(jie)低碳能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),還可(ke)彌補可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在穩定性(xing)方面的(de)(de)不足(zu),支撐可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)大(da)規模發展(zhan)。天(tian)然氣發電將在我(wo)國(guo)(guo)構(gou)建清(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體系中(zhong)扮演重要角(jiao)色。氣電發展(zhan)也與(yu)十九大(da)報告提出(chu)的(de)(de)滿(man)足(zu)人(ren)民日(ri)益增長的(de)(de)美(mei)好生活(huo)需要、建設美(mei)麗中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)和構(gou)建人(ren)類命運共同(tong)體密切(qie)相關(guan)。
一、天然氣清(qing)潔(jie)低(di)碳優勢突(tu)出(chu)
天然(ran)氣作為一種潔凈環保的優質能源(yuan),凈化(hua)后幾乎不含硫和粉塵。從大氣污染(ran)(ran)角度(du),其完全燃燒(shao)后僅有(you)NOx排(pai)放(fang),而(er)原煤(mei)燃燒(shao)后會排(pai)放(fang)大量SO2、煙(yan)塵和NOx等(deng)大氣污染(ran)(ran)物(wu)和固廢(fei)。天然(ran)氣替代散(san)煤(mei)的環保效(xiao)果(guo)已得到公認。
同時,我(wo)國(guo)氣電(dian)的環保效(xiao)果在火力發(fa)電(dian)中頗為(wei)顯著(zhu)。氣電(dian)采用新型低(di)氮(dan)燃燒器和(he)脫硝后,NOx排放濃度可以穩(wen)定(ding)在15毫克/立方(fang)米以下(xia),我(wo)國(guo)個別(bie)先進燃氣電(dian)廠已(yi)達(da)到10毫克/立方(fang)米以下(xia)。
從(cong)應對氣候(hou)變(bian)化(hua)、控制碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)角度,從(cong)度電(dian)CO2排(pai)放(fang)(fang)水平(ping)(ping)看,最新型燃(ran)氣輪機較燃(ran)煤電(dian)廠減排(pai)60%。目前,中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)全球占比超(chao)過1/4,其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)電(dian)力部門碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)在我國(guo)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)中(zhong)(zhong)約(yue)占43%,提升氣電(dian)比例可有效降低我國(guo)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)水平(ping)(ping)。
二、可(ke)再生能源大規(gui)模發展(zhan)需要(yao)天然氣發電支撐
風(feng)、光等可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)具有(you)間歇性(xing)(xing)、隨(sui)機(ji)(ji)(ji)性(xing)(xing)、反調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)特(te)性(xing)(xing),其大規模(mo)并網需要(yao)靈活(huo)(huo)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)支撐。目(mu)前,我國(guo)(guo)靈活(huo)(huo)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)例還不到(dao)(dao)6%,風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)富集的(de)(de)“三北”地區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)度靈活(huo)(huo)性(xing)(xing)更低,煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)重超(chao)過70%,靈活(huo)(huo)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占比(bi)不足4%。而(er)全球(qiu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)比(bi)例較高的(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)靈活(huo)(huo)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)比(bi)例均在(zai)20%以(yi)上,美國(guo)(guo)更是(shi)(shi)高達(da)47%。目(mu)前我國(guo)(guo)儲能(neng)(neng)技術(shu)尚待發展,抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)有(you)限。氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)是(shi)(shi)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)頻(pin)性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)突出、可(ke)(ke)(ke)靠性(xing)(xing)高、可(ke)(ke)(ke)規模(mo)發展的(de)(de)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),是(shi)(shi)未來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)的(de)(de)主要(yao)選(xuan)擇。單(dan)循環燃(ran)(ran)氣(qi)輪機(ji)(ji)(ji)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)力(li)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)達(da)到(dao)(dao)100%,聯合循環機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)力(li)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)達(da)到(dao)(dao)70%~100%。此(ci)外,燃(ran)(ran)機(ji)(ji)(ji)是(shi)(shi)靠直接調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)燃(ran)(ran)料來調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)負(fu)荷(he),響應非常快(kuai),有(you)快(kuai)速的(de)(de)升降負(fu)荷(he)能(neng)(neng)力(li)。雖(sui)然煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通過靈活(huo)(huo)性(xing)(xing)改造可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)一定(ding)程度提升調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)力(li),但調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)力(li)、性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)遠不及燃(ran)(ran)氣(qi)輪機(ji)(ji)(ji),而(er)且深度調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)對(dui)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組(zu)(zu)的(de)(de)運行安全性(xing)(xing)、環保性(xing)(xing)、經濟性(xing)(xing)產生(sheng)影響。所以(yi),用氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)來配合可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)進行調(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)(diao)峰(feng)是(shi)(shi)現實(shi)、明智的(de)(de)選(xuan)擇。
三、我國天然(ran)氣中長期供應安(an)全風險整(zheng)體(ti)可(ke)控(kong)
從全(quan)球來(lai)看,天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)資源(yuan)充足,供需(xu)長期(qi)寬松,價(jia)格將長期(qi)保持低(di)位。全(quan)球天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)探明儲量197萬億立方(fang)米,按目前的(de)(de)(de)開(kai)采量可(ke)開(kai)采50年以上(shang);而(er)全(quan)球天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)可(ke)采資源(yuan)量783萬億~900萬億立方(fang)米,按目前的(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)費量可(ke)用(yong)二百多年。當(dang)前,發(fa)達國(guo)家(jia)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)消(xiao)費已(yi)進入平臺(tai)期(qi)或(huo)開(kai)始(shi)下降,天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)消(xiao)費增(zeng)長主要來(lai)自中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)、印度等(deng)發(fa)展中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)家(jia),而(er)印度天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)消(xiao)費量和(he)價(jia)格承(cheng)受能力較(jiao)低(di),我(wo)國(guo)具有較(jiao)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)競爭優(you)勢(shi)。隨著天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)液(ye)化和(he)儲運技(ji)術的(de)(de)(de)進步,近些年全(quan)球LNG貿(mao)易量迅速增(zeng)長,天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)成為全(quan)球性的(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)易商(shang)品。同時,LNG貿(mao)易靈(ling)活性也日益增(zeng)加,天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)進口(kou)來(lai)源(yuan)非常多,集中(zhong)(zhong)度不高,進口(kou)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險大(da)大(da)降低(di)。經過十幾年的(de)(de)(de)驗證,出口(kou)商(shang)對中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)客戶的(de)(de)(de)信譽非常認可(ke),與中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)企業簽署(shu)LNG貿(mao)易協議的(de)(de)(de)意愿較(jiao)強。加上(shang)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)是(shi)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)需(xu)求大(da)國(guo),很多項(xiang)目都(dou)是(shi)瞄準中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)市場。
2019年(nian)以(yi)來,全球主要市場天然氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)呈下行趨勢(shi),2020年(nian)受(shou)新冠肺(fei)炎疫(yi)情(qing)及國際油(you)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)暴跌(die)等因素影響,國際氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)繼續深度下跌(die),東北(bei)(bei)亞(ya)LNG現貨單(dan)日報(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)跌(die)至2美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)英(ying)熱以(yi)下。預計“十(shi)(shi)四五”時期東北(bei)(bei)亞(ya)現貨均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)4.8~8美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)英(ying)熱,相比“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五”時期回落10%~20%。預計“十(shi)(shi)四五”國際油(you)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)難以(yi)突破65美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/桶,進(jin)口氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)將隨之下行。根據近(jin)兩年(nian)新簽的與油(you)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)掛(gua)(gua)鉤的天然氣(qi)進(jin)口合同(tong)斜率由原先的15%左右(you)降(jiang)到(dao)10%左右(you)的預測,“十(shi)(shi)四五”與油(you)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)掛(gua)(gua)鉤的進(jin)口LNG長貿(mao)到(dao)岸(an)(an)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)將降(jiang)至7美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)英(ying)熱以(yi)下,與氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)掛(gua)(gua)鉤的長貿(mao)到(dao)岸(an)(an)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)將降(jiang)至6美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)英(ying)熱左右(you),綜合進(jin)口價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)6~7美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)英(ying)熱,相比“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五”的綜合進(jin)口價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)9~10美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/百(bai)(bai)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)英(ying)熱大幅回落30%~40%。
從國(guo)內來看,我國(guo)天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)勘探處(chu)于早期階段(duan),陸上常規(gui)資源仍有(you)較(jiao)大(da)潛力,非常規(gui)和(he)深海資源潛力巨大(da),通過(guo)深化改革和(he)科(ke)技進(jin)步(bu)完全(quan)可以保(bao)障安全(quan)供應。根據中國(guo)石油(you)勘探開發(fa)研(yan)究院(yuan)(yuan)油(you)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)展戰略規(gui)劃首席技術專家陸家亮研(yan)究團隊預(yu)測,在不考慮(lv)煤(mei)炭地下氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)化、深海天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)和(he)天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)水(shui)合(he)物開發(fa)的(de)情況下,2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)、2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)、2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我國(guo)天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)產(chan)量可以分別達到2100~2450億(yi)立(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)、2550~3000億(yi)立(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)、2800~3300億(yi)立(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)和(he)3300~4100億(yi)立(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi),國(guo)產(chan)天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)可長(chang)期滿足包括民生(sheng)、公共服務及關系國(guo)防民生(sheng)的(de)關鍵工業用氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)“底線需(xu)求”(目前為1000億(yi)立(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi),2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)2100億(yi)立(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi),2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)2350億(yi)立(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi))。根據中國(guo)石油(you)經(jing)濟(ji)技術研(yan)究院(yuan)(yuan)的(de)研(yan)究,我國(guo)天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)對外依(yi)存度(du)在2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到53%左右(you)的(de)峰值(zhi),以后開始下降(jiang)。如(ru)果煤(mei)炭地下氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)化、深海天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)和(he)天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)水(shui)合(he)物開發(fa)取(qu)得突破,我國(guo)天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)對外依(yi)存度(du)還(huan)將大(da)大(da)降(jiang)低(di)。只要措施得當,供應安全(quan)風險可以得到控制。
四、推動氣電發展(zhan)相(xiang)關建議
氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)(zai)多數國家與煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相比都不具有成(cheng)本(ben)優勢,持(chi)續的(de)(de)(de)(de)、愈加嚴格的(de)(de)(de)(de)低碳(tan)(tan)環(huan)(huan)保政策(ce)是(shi)推(tui)動天然氣(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)大(da)(da)規模發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關鍵因素,通過完善(shan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)政策(ce)或機(ji)制(zhi),改善(shan)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟性。美國氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)增長(chang)最快的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)期(qi)(2005~2010年)并非低氣(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)時(shi)期(qi),而是(shi)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)最高的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)期(qi),氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)也主要靠低碳(tan)(tan)環(huan)(huan)保政策(ce)支持(chi),特別是(shi)2015年推(tui)出的(de)(de)(de)(de)全國性二氧化碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)限(xian)制(zhi)體系,極大(da)(da)地推(tui)動氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)快速發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。歐(ou)洲主要通過提高碳(tan)(tan)價(jia)格,提升氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相對煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟性。為進一步促(cu)進氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan),充(chong)分發(fa)(fa)揮氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)(zai)我國構建(jian)清潔(jie)低碳(tan)(tan)、安全高效的(de)(de)(de)(de)能源體系中(zhong)重要作(zuo)用(yong),建(jian)議進一步明確氣(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)位,加大(da)(da)產業政策(ce)支持(chi)力(li)度(du)(du)和低碳(tan)(tan)政策(ce)約束力(li)度(du)(du):
1.從持(chi)續改善大氣質量、促進清潔能(neng)源替代(dai)、履行(xing)控(kong)制碳排放承諾方(fang)面(mian),明確(que)積極發(fa)展氣電(dian)(dian),提升天然氣發(fa)電(dian)(dian)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)力結(jie)構中的占比;從支撐可(ke)再生能(neng)源發(fa)展方(fang)面(mian),明確(que)氣電(dian)(dian)作為調(diao)峰電(dian)(dian)源的優先(xian)地(di)位,走(zou)依(yi)托“非(fei)化(hua)石能(neng)源+低碳(無碳)靈(ling)活性電(dian)(dian)源”的能(neng)源轉型之(zhi)路。
2.制(zhi)定煤電裝機總量控制(zhi)目(mu)標(biao),建議“十(shi)四五(wu)”加大減煤增(zeng)(zeng)氣力度,從嚴控制(zhi)新增(zeng)(zeng)煤電機組數量。
3.取消對(dui)發展氣電的政策限制(zhi)。
4.大力(li)支持氣電(dian)與可再生能源(yuan)融合發展,捆(kun)綁享受有關補貼和優惠政策。
5.加(jia)大對重(zhong)型(xing)燃機(ji)研(yan)發的支持力(li)度,盡快突破(po)發電用重(zhong)型(xing)燃氣(qi)輪機(ji)關鍵技術,形成完(wan)整的重(zhong)型(xing)燃氣(qi)輪機(ji)產業(ye)體系。
6.加(jia)快構(gou)建和完善(shan)全(quan)國(guo)碳市(shi)場,并設定“地(di)板價”。
免責聲(sheng)明:本文(wen)僅代表作者個人觀點,與(yu)本站(zhan)和萬普隆(long)能源公司無關(guan)。其原創性(xing)以及(ji)文(wen)中陳述文(wen)字(zi)和內(nei)容未經(jing)本站(zhan)證實,對(dui)(dui)(dui)本文(wen)以及(ji)其中全部或者部分內(nei)容、文(wen)字(zi)的真(zhen)實性(xing)、完整性(xing)、及(ji)時性(xing)本站(zhan)不(bu)(bu)作任何保證或承諾,請讀者僅作參考,并請自(zi)行核實相(xiang)關(guan)內(nei)容。凡注明為其他媒體來源的信(xin)息,均為轉(zhuan)載(zai)自(zi)其他媒體,轉(zhuan)載(zai)的目(mu)的只是為了傳播更多的信(xin)息,并不(bu)(bu)代表本網(wang)贊同其觀點,也不(bu)(bu)代表本網(wang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)其真(zhen)實性(xing)負責。您(nin)(nin)若對(dui)(dui)(dui)該稿件內(nei)容有任何疑(yi)問或質(zhi)疑(yi),請即與(yu)我們聯系 ,本網(wang)站(zhan)將迅速(su)給您(nin)(nin)回(hui)應并做(zuo)處理。